Sunday, 3 October 2010

The Phoney War

So here we are, two conferences down and one to go.

Nick Clegg managed to get those at conference to bear with the Coalition for a while longer, and relegated any real dissent to the grumblings of some bloggers and local Councillors under the cosh with May's elections looming.

Labour went to Manchester awaiting the outcome of the David vs Ed show. Ed won by a nose, the David will he won't he story took the blemish off a modest but good start by Ed.

David Cameron now feels Labour breathing down his neck at the Polls. However, he seems relaxed that his Liberal Democrat human shield is working nicely, absorbing the flak aimed at the Coalition.

The battle for the next election hasn't even begun. Two major events are yet to be played out that will decide the next 4 years:

1) The Comprehensive Spending Review - The country will learn the scale of the pain that is coming. If the cuts don't hurt as much as expected, the economy avoids a double dip recession and returns to growth pre 2015 then it will be a Conservative majority next election.

2) The AV Referendum - The Liberal Democrats gave up so much for the gamble they could win a referendum on the Holy Grail for them. Lose, which is a distinct possibility, and they have given it all way for nothing. How this would impact on the Coalition is unknown, but it won't be pretty. Life outside the is looking bleak, judging by recent polls, but life inside will just as bad. May's Local Elections look like giving Nick more than a bloody nose, more like GBH.

So the CSR will determine the external environment and the AV Referendum will determine the inner environment for the Coalition.

It's fascinating, and it hasn't began yet...

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