IMPORTANT NOTICE

Polling Analysis - Blue to Yellow?

Looking at the YouGov data below, some analysis shows that recently The LD vote may be taking votes from the Conservatives. The data was subject to a CUSUM analysis:


Date CON LAB LD
29/Nov 40 40 10
30/Nov 40 40 10
01/Dec 41 38 11
02/Dec 40 40 11
03/Dec 41 39 10
06/Dec 42 39 10
07/Dec 42 39 9
08/Dec 41 41 8
09/Dec 41 39 11
10/Dec 40 42 9
13/Dec 41 42 9
14/Dec 39 42 9
15/Dec 42 40 8
16/Dec 41 41 9
19/Dec 39 42 9
20/Dec 40 43 8
21/Dec 40 42 9
22/Dec 41 42 8
23/Dec 39 41 9
04/Jan 40 42 8
05/Jan 40 41 10
06/Jan 39 43 7
08/Jan 38 41 10
10/Jan 40 43 8
11/Jan 40 41 7
12/Jan 36 43 9
13/Jan 41 41 8
15/Jan 37 43 9
17/Jan 37 42 9
18/Jan 39 44 8
19/Jan 37 42 9
20/Jan 36 43 10
23/Jan 39 43 9
24/Jan 37 42 11


                                                                                

Below are the charts created from this analysis:





The following points can be noted:

  • Labour has picked up support solidly since about the 10th December
  • This period was when the Liberal Democrat support declined. However, around 4 days ago this trend was reversing, and they began to pick up support.
  • From late December, early January, Conservative support has been falling.
  • As the Labour support has grown solidly and Conservative support has consistently fallen, it is fair to suggest the rise in Liberal Democrat support has probably come from the Conservatives.
The attention is now firmly on the economy and moved on from Tuition fees. Today's poor 2010 Q4 numbers will be widely noted, as will the increase in VAT and petrol prices. 

The economic policies of the Coalition are very clearly Conservative, and the Nick Clegg shield will not protect Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne.

As Conservative supporters will probably not vote Labour, perhaps some centre-right Coalition supporters who are unhappy may drift to the Liberal Democrats, and the right to UKIP.

This weeks YouGov data will prove interesting.




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